USA: Goldman Sachs lowers GDP forecast, social reform project in jeopardy | Photo credits: shutterstock
Dec.20 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs lowered its quarterly forecast for U.S. economic growth for 2022 after Democratic Senator Joe Manchin announced he would not support the $ 1.750 billion social spending bill of dollars (1.554 billion euros) of Joe Biden.
Joe Manchin dealt a blow to this vast investment plan dubbed “Build Back Better (BBB)” which aims to extend the social safety net of Americans and fight against climate change, Democrats and Republicans having a number identical seats in the upper house of Congress.
“We were already expecting an unfavorable fiscal boost for 2022 due to the weakening of support against COVID-19 given in 2020 and 2021 and without the enactment of the ‘BBB’ this fiscal push will become a little more unfavorable than expected. Goldman Sachs analyst Jan Hatzius wrote in a note dated Sunday.
The analyst revised the forecast for the gross domestic product of the United States to 2% against 3% for the first quarter of 2022, without taking into account the passage of the bill by Congress.
For the second quarter, the GDP estimate is reduced to 3% against 3.5% previously and for the third quarter to 2.75% against 3%.
“While the bill in its current form seems unlikely, there is still a good chance that Congress will pass a much smaller set of tax proposals with incentives for the manufacturing sector and to combat tensions in the industry. supply chain, ”said Jan Hatzius.
Goldman Sachs believes that there is still a chance that Congress will extend the family with children tax credit program with some modifications, although the chances are less. (Report Siddarth S in Bengaluru, French version Laetitia Volga, edited by Blandine Hénault)