(CercleFinance.com) – The New York Stock Exchange should open without much trend on Monday morning at the start of a shortened session due to Independence Day, the equity markets thus interrupting their bullish streak of the past week .
Half an hour before the open, the ‘future’ contract on the S&P 500 index fell by 0.1%, but that on the Nasdaq 100 rose by the opposite of 0.1%, signaling a hesitant start to the session .
Volumes are expected to be reduced and trading very quiet on the 4th of July bridge, which will see Wall Street close at 1:00 p.m. (New York time) today, then remain closed throughout the day tomorrow.
Over the past week, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 both gained 2%, as did the Nasdaq, which has just completed nine weeks of growth out of ten.
With a gain of around 15% over the first half of the financial year, the S&P signed its fifth best first half since 1990 this year, which is usually a good omen for the stock market year as a whole.
But many analysts point out that the benchmark’s advance was driven, for the most part, by the tech giants most exposed to artificial intelligence.
These ‘Magnificent Seven’ alone – namely Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Nvidia and Meta – have soared 85% in the first six months of the year.
Another cause for concern, the economic horizon is darkening with the increasingly probable scenario of a recession looming between now and the end of the year, not to mention the prospect of continued monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Investors will be able to refine, over the coming days, their judgment on the state of the economy according to several statistics which could constitute the next catalyst for the markets to go higher, or on the contrary justify an episode of consolidation.
Among the many macroeconomic indicators on the program for the week are the ISM services index in the United States, the latest ‘minutes’ from the Federal Reserve and the US employment report.
Are expected during the morning, the ISM index of the manufacturing sector, as well as the PMI of S&P Global on industry.
These data should allow participants to build scenarios on the timing of interest rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve, while recent statements by Jerome Powell, its chairman, have reinforced the hypothesis of at least two further rate hikes.
On the bond market, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell towards 3.84% after stretching to nearly 3.90% at the end of last week.
On the currency side, the dollar is erasing its overnight gains, with the euro climbing back to the contact of 1.0910.
True to its uncertain course in recent sessions, the barrel of American light crude oil (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) is on the rise again by 1% to trade at 71.3 dollars.
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