Reducing Russian toxicity: this is the goal Joe Biden has set himself since entering the White House. In mid-June, at the end of his meeting in Geneva with Vladimir Poutin, the American president hoped to recalibrate the bilateral relationship, by making it more predictable and standardized. Failure.
Tuesday, December 7, Joe Biden will again meet with his counterpart, by video conference, in a context that is both electric and uncertain, due to speculation about Russian military intentions in Ukraine. In Geneva, the United States had set red lines for cyberattacks against their strategic sites. Today, Vladimir Putin wants to impose his own, about the expansion and influence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at its borders.
The American press mentions the figure of 175,000 soldiers deployed by Moscow on its own territory, near the border. By mobilizing so many forces, after a first alert in May, Vladimir Poutine creates a doubt, which forces the United States to refocus their attention on the European space.
Experts are divided on the leader’s intentions, relying on previous episodes: the war in Georgia (2008), the annexation of Crimea and the special operation in Donbass through the intermediary of separatists in his pay ( 2014). This uncertainty explains the extent of the American preventive mobilization, the leaks organized in the press, the communications made to European allies, who were initially quite skeptical about the reality of the threat. Meanwhile, on the ground in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) identify between 400 and 500 daily violations of the ceasefire.
“Nuclear option”
Russia knows how to speak the language of military force, the very language Joe Biden has promised no longer to favor. In the event of an offensive, the United States intends to respond with economic sanctions. Beyond measures targeting individuals (freezing of assets, ban on entry into the United States) or companies, there is an ultimate option, which would aim to transform Russia into a pariah state, just like Iran. : its exclusion from the Swift (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) financial information exchange system. But the United States could not do anything on its own. The company, based in Belgium, connects more than 11,000 banks and institutions.
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