France’s government is making a new attempt to reform the pension system. The omens are worse than in autumn 2019. But the stakes are high for Macron.
French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne (right) will present the pension reform with three of her ministers on Tuesday. From right to left next to her: Economics Minister Bruno Le Maire, Labor Minister Olivier Dussopt and Stanislas Guerini, who is responsible for public sector and transformation.
There are sentences that the French hear again and again from Emmanuel Macron’s lips – and not just since he has been in power in the presidential palace. “We have to work longer,” says one of them. “I count on you!” another.
Reforming the French pension system is one of the major political goals that Macron formulated in his self-image as a reformer. Since 2019 at the latest, he has been aware that he cannot count on the enthusiasm of his fellow citizens. At that time he had made his first attempt. He defied weeks of strikes and a blockade in parliament – and then let the project rest: first because of the pandemic, which raged quite violently in France, especially at the beginning, then because of the uncertainties that the war in Ukraine in the everyday life of French women and French brought.
Now he’s trying again. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and three of her ministers announced the cornerstones of a pension reform on Tuesday evening. It is designed somewhat differently than the one that Borne’s predecessor envisaged in autumn 2019, but the goal remains the same: to compensate for the deficit in the pension fund by 2030. To this end, the retirement age is to be gradually increased from today’s 62 to 64 by 2030 . In addition, from 2027, French people must have paid into the pension fund for at least 43 years in order to be entitled to a full pension. Today, the minimum contribution period is 41.5 years.
However, there will be some exceptions to the increase in the retirement age. People who have already entered professional life with an apprenticeship and have so-called “long careers”, those who work in physically demanding professions or who have health restrictions will still be able to retire before the age of 64. The new law provides for the abolition of the majority of the 27 special regimes for certain professional groups. However, some – such as for the employees of the Paris Opera or for seafarers – will remain in place. Dancers at the Paris Opera can retire at 42. As early as September, when the law comes into force according to the government’s plan, the minimum pension is to be increased to 1,200 euros, which is around 85 percent of the minimum wage. One of the concessions to the left-wing opponents – and Borne repeatedly emphasized the influence that critics had on the law. In fact, weeks of negotiations with representatives of trade unions, employers and political parties preceded the presentation of the law. They would have made the template better, said Borne.
Hoping for the Conservatives
The detailed agreements were intended to prevent the law from failing in Parliament or due to resistance from the trade unions. In December, Macron pushed back the presentation of the project to January at the last minute; probably to avert chaos around the Christmas days. Because the signs of a quick success in his project are worse than three years ago.
On the one hand, Macron has not had an absolute majority in the National Assembly since last June’s election. He relies on the support of other parties to get bills through Parliament. In the case of pension reform, he can only hope for the support of the conservative Républicains; all other parties categorically reject the reform.
The new head of the Républicains, Éric Ciotti, has signaled his willingness to support Macron if he makes the reform less “brutal”. This is necessary in view of the difficult economic situation, argues Ciotti. The fact that the government only wants to increase the entry age to 64 instead of 65 as originally planned can be interpreted as a concession to his address. In an interview, however, Ciotti said that he also wanted less speed. If he has his way, the reform should only be fully effective in ten years.
In order for Macron’s party to gain an absolute majority, around two-thirds of Ciotti’s group would have to agree to the reform. This is not certain; a group around MP Aurélien Pradié opposes raising the retirement age. In addition, it is still unclear when there will be a vote at all. The law is expected to reach parliament in early February. The left-wing opposition, led by La France insoumise, is threatening to torpedo the consultation with a flood of amendments. As a last resort, the government would have recourse to Article 49.3, which allows it to refer a law to the lower chamber without a vote. However, Borne said on Tuesday that she hoped for a constructive debate.
On the other hand, Macron is threatened with trouble from the street this time too. For weeks, the unions have been threatening to paralyze the country. They have announced a first day of action for January 19th. For the first time since 2010 – when Nicolas Sarkozy pushed through raising the retirement age to 62 – all unions have agreed to protest the plan. Their common main criticism is the increase in the retirement age.
If one believes polls, the majority of the population is also skeptical about the reform. Support for a possible strike movement is currently higher than at the beginning of the protests in autumn 2019. However, it is uncertain how great the mobilizing power of the trade union front is. There is a possibility that the rejection of the pension reform will mix with general dissatisfaction. The government has restricted some measures to alleviate inflation, such as a general price reduction for fuel. Only low-income earners now receive support. At the same time, it decided last week to extend the cap on energy prices until June. The president could pay a heavy price to salvage his reputation as a reform president.