Billions in damage for the EU: Delayed vaccination start could be expensive

Wednesday, February 03, 2021

Billions in damage for the EU
Delayed vaccination start could be expensive

Not only is Germany lagging behind the original schedule after a slow vaccination start, only a few citizens in other EU countries are vaccinated against Corona. Experts warn: If the EU doesn't go a step further when it comes to speed, there is a risk of major economic damage.

Delays in the vaccination campaign against the coronavirus can cause immense economic damage, according to a study. The moment of truth is now striking for Europe, according to an analysis by Allianz and credit insurer Euler Hermes, which is available to the Reuters news agency. Postponing vaccination plans by five weeks would result in damage of almost 90 billion euros in 2021 if the delays cannot be made up. The authors point out that the EU is well behind Great Britain and the USA when it comes to vaccinations.

In order to still achieve the EU Commission's goal of having 70 percent of adults vaccinated by the summer, the current pace would have to be increased sixfold. However, many governments have recently emphasized that the initial difficulties should decrease with each quarter – due to further approvals of vaccines and increasing production capacities of the providers. According to the study, EU countries are currently five weeks behind schedule. This leads to further restrictions on public life, which in turn primarily affects service providers.

At the current pace, herd immunity would not be achieved in the population until the end of 2022 – thus eliminating the risk of overloading the health system. In order to enable a sustainable economic recovery in the course of the year, the EU countries would have to aim to have vaccinated risk groups by mid-2021. This is the only way to reach the economic level from before the pandemic by mid-2022.

It is also money well invested: "One euro that is spent on accelerating vaccination (i.e. infrastructure, increasing vaccine production) could save the EU countries four times as many euros in failures."