contents
India’s position between East and West has a long tradition. This opens up opportunities for mediation between Moscow and Kyiv.
India, the world’s fifth largest economy, has so far largely stayed out of the Ukraine conflict. The country has not participated in either Western sanctions or UN sanctions against Russia.
Now India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is visiting Moscow – reason for US media like the New York Times to speculate whether India wants to recommend itself there as a quasi-neutral peace mediator in the Ukraine conflict.
Speculations in US newspapers
“It is no coincidence that India’s Foreign Minister Jaishankar is visiting Moscow right now,” said Raja Mohan, one of India’s leading foreign policy analysts. “The visit has been planned for a long time.”
India is in a good starting position to act as a peacemaker in the Ukraine war when the right moment comes, says the expert from the Asia Society Policy Institute in New Delhi.
India’s foreign minister remained non-binding in Moscow: “India supports a return to dialogue and diplomacy,” he said after talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. India is on the side of peace.
Legend:
India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is in Moscow, where he met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, among others.
Keystone/Maxim Shipenkov
Russia supplies arms to India
Analyst Mohan does not want to confirm whether India will soon act as a direct mediator, as a neutral third power so to speak. Because he would not describe India as neutral. After all, India criticizes Russia, at least indirectly.
However, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has so far avoided direct criticism of Russia. The Indian foreign policy expert explains that Russia is India’s most important arms supplier. And above all a very important oil supplier.
Legend:
Reuters/Baz Ratner
Although fierce fighting is still going on in Ukraine, that could change soon, according to Indian foreign policy expert Raja Mohan. “The approaching winter will make it harder to fight. In just a few weeks, the warring parties could therefore be more open to peace talks,” he says. Because the costs of the war would also get out of hand on both sides. Diplomacy will then get another chance.
Nevertheless, India’s relations with the USA, Ukraine’s most important western partner, have never been as close as they are now, says Mohan. More than four and a half million Indians live in the USA, and both countries have also moved closer together strategically – in the defensive fight against China.
USA are India’s most important partner
The US is probably India’s most important partner. But India cannot simply shed its old military dependency on Russia.
India as a country between Russia and the West: That has tradition. In the 1950s and 1960s, the subcontinent led the group of non-aligned countries that sought a third way in the Cold War. With this attitude, India could also recommend itself as a peace mediator in the Ukraine war.
Whether Ukraine will accept India in this role is another question. As recently as July, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had rejected a silent offer of mediation from India. It’s hard for Ukraine to accept that a country that has close economic ties with Russia could act as a peacemaker in a war.